Nr. 5-6 /2017 -7

The present paper is focused on the assessment of social impact of two risk scenarios. The pivotal idea of the analytical model proposed in the paper is that a “safe operating geo-space for a community” “acts like waves in the physical world” only that what is waving in this case is what we chose to call the latent underlying hazard (disaster), or infra-hazard (infra-disaster). Like any other waves the hazard-wave reaches a crest and then it begins to collapse but it leaves behind a certain volume of disturbances called impact. On the basis of this analytical model, and of the data from risk scenarios, sociological survey and comparativ studies, were calculated specific parameters upon social impact of those risk scenarios and on the territorial distances radiating from the potential disaster’s hotspot. Additionally, the infra-catastrophic maps were drawn to prefigure the zones that will be stricken by those two hazards.

Keywords: social impact of risk scenarios, hot spot method, δ-index of distances from the hotspot, integral territorial index of social impact (of a risk scenario); the overdetermined catastrophism.

Full text